2023-24 NHL Season Preview: Central Division
Which Team Will Suck The Least Ass In the Central Division?
If you missed it, here is my preview for the Pacific Division. Anyways here’s the Central Division preview.
Chicago
What Happened Last Season: They blatantly tanked for Connor Bedard and got rewarded for it.
What Happened This Offseason: They drafted Connor Bedard, then traded for Taylor Hall and brought in Nick Foligno and Corey Perry to help prop them up to the cap floor.
Why They’re Going To Suck: Chicago’s team is quite literally the Bugatti Veyron in a trailer park meme. Bedard might actually live up to the hype but once you get past him there’s little to be excited about. Lukas Reichel looked good and washed Taylor Hall is still relatively useful, but the quality drops off further down the roster. Kevin Korchinski needs to be a top pairing guy right away because Seth Jones is ass and Connor Murphy isn’t doing a whole lot for a team that doesn’t have an offensive defenseman to insulate. Plus there’s the whole question of what Luke Richardson’s deal is- Chicago’s tank made it real hard to assess what he can do. If Richardson doesn’t have a clue then maybe the road back to the top is a lot rockier even with Bedard on their team.
Why They Won’t Suck: Chicago has a large war chest. Perhaps if some apples fall loose and they have a way to add more NHL talent to this roster Kyle Davidson has a massive war chest to capitalize on. I don’t think it will be enough but it’s probably the closest they’ll get to finishing outside of the gutter.
What’s Probably Going To Happen: Bedard probably has a very good rookie season given the team’s circumstances but he’s nowhere close to enough to get them out of the hole they’re in. And with Chicago’s enormous war chest and $53+million in cap space for next season they’re clearly not looking at this season as an important one.
Prediction: 8th in the Central
Arizona
What Happened Last Season: The Coyotes punched above their weight class and ultimately didn’t finish in the gutter. Jakob Chychrun also finally got traded and they used their two top 15 picks to draft gigantic Russians.
What Happened This Offseason: They were able to convince Logan Cooley to sign his ELC and join the team, which might be the most important offseason move they could’ve made this offseason. Nick Bjugstad and Troy Stetcher were brought back while they brought in Jason Zucker, Matt Dumba and Alex Kerfoot on cheap deals and traded for Sean Durzi.
Why They’re Going To Suck: The Coyotes are still a work in progress and are extremely green and/or rough around the edges. The center depth is there but also kinda ephemeral since Logan Cooley is still technically a mystery box and Barrett Hayton has only had maybe 40 games of being able to be that guy. The defense has a lot of competent guys, but at the same time they don’t have a number one guy there. If there’s one flaw with Andre Tourigny it’s that he’s got hockey man brain and will give way too much rope to the veteran he trusts the most, which in this case is a cooked Matt Dumba. Losing Shayne Gostisbehere feels like it could be an issue because he did provide a lot of power play offense that the Coyotes will probably be missing- and Dumba probably doesn’t provide that.
Why They Won’t Suck: You don’t necessarily have to squint hard enough to see that the Coyotes might have enough juice to be this year’s version of last year’s Sabres as a team punching above their weight class. I don’t like the Dumba move but Durzi, Zucker and Kerfoot add some value at both ends of the ice. And like the Sabres they seem to have a coach with a clue as Andre Tourigny is doing what Granato did for the Sabres after Ralph Kruger ran them into the shitter. If Cooley can be an impact player right away perhaps a 1-2 punch of him with Hayton has the Coyotes being the team of intrigue this year.
What’s Probably Going To Happen: Unlike the Sabres having to play in an extremely tough division and conference top to bottom, the Coyotes are in a pretty weak conference and division with a middle that’s way too mushy. I don’t think they’re just yet but they’re probably going to be in the fight for a spot a lot longer than everyone expects them to be.
Prediction: 6th in the Central
St. Louis
What Happened Last Season: The bottom fell out, an overpaid, aging D core coupled with a tandem of shitty racist goalies wasn’t enough to hide a group of forwards that needed to finish at a high rate to hide the team’s shitty defense. They decided to sell but also tried convincing themselves they could be buyers. Peter Chiarelli did not lose his job.
What Happened This Offseason: They remembered a guy and decided to sign the nephew of former NFL great Tim Biakabutuka. They also brought back Oscar Sundqvist, signed Malcom Subban to back up Binnington and were able to get the Flyers to give them Kevin Hayes with maximum salary retained. Peter Chiarelli is currently employed by the Blues.
Why They’re Going To Suck: The Blues’ response to the team falling apart by the seams is to pretend that everything is fine and not actually commit to nuking everything. They’ve got a ton of bad money tied up in big contracts and getting out of those contracts should’ve been a priority. Instead they’re hoping that they can bounce back when they’re going head first into the toilet. Peter Chiarelli will have stolen more money from the Blues.
Why They Won’t Suck: Maybe Joel Hofer or Malcolm Subban goes on a heater and does what was so successful in years past, which was having a goalie that could cover up enough warts to make the team look respectable.
What’s Probably Going To Happen: The Blues cup win might have come right before the window closed, but their descent into a flaming heap of garbage seemingly co-incided with one hire that came right after their cup win. Now guess who that hire was? If you guessed Frank Stallone, you are unfortunately wrong. As we’ve seen before if you need a guy to drive your team into a ditch it’s Peter Chiarelli.
Prediction: 7th in the Central
Nashville
What Happened Last Season: John Hynes tried once again to make flaccid heavy hockey work again and failed. David Poile decided that the team was going nowhere and stepped down so Barry Trotz could take over. In a hilarious plot twist Barry Trotz decided that the ultra conservative dump and chase coach was not worth it and John Hynes got shitcanned.
What Happened This Offseason: Barry Trotz decided that the team was shit and he hated everyone so he gave Ryan Johansen away to Colorado and decided that they were better off buying out Matt Duchene. With those two gone they brought in Ryan O’Reilly, Gustav Nyqvist and Luke Schenn. And to everyone’s surprise Trotz decided not to bring in another defensive coach and hired offensive guru Andrew Brunette.
Why They’re Going To Suck: Brunette is going to be in a really different place than he was with Florida and New Jersey. It’s easy when you’ve got guys like Barkov, Huberdeau, Hughes and Hischier who were more or less trending in the right direction when he got there. It’s a lot harder trying to fix former highly drafted skill guys like Phillip Tomasino and Cody Glass. Once you get past Roman Josi and Filip Forsberg the next best offensive weapon is probably *checks notes* Tommy Novak? It took Lindy Ruff years to undo the damage John Hynes did to the Devils with much better young players. As good as Brunette is it’s probably safe to say that he won’t be getting immediate returns on any young players who could potentially be difference makers.
Why They Won’t Suck: Josi, Forsberg and Jusse Saros are probably enough to keep them out of the gutter. Plus the stylistic swap from a flaccid, offense averse coach trying to win games by scoring as few goals as possible to one who’s been part of top tier offenses feels pretty significant. The Preds downfall came because they were too risk averse and reliant on Saros. Even if Brunette’s systems are looser they’ll most likely be less punishing towards Saros due to the team actually giving him goal support and preventing shots by spending more time in the other team’s end.
What’s Probably Going To Happen: The Preds are too good to be in the bottom feeder conversation. But their success will be tied with what happens with Saros- if a team looking for a goalie upgrade comes in with a godfather offer they could easily tumble down the standings with them replacing Saros with a worse goalie. But I think with Brunette and the uncertainty in the division and conference they’re punching above their weight class this season.
Prediction: 5th in the Central, 2nd Wild Card
Winnipeg
What Happened Last Season: The Jets fell ass backwards into a playoff spot and got fed their lunch.
What Happened This Offseason: The Jets couldn’t keep Pierre-Luc Dubois and was traded to the Kings, with the Jets getting Gabe Villardi, Alex Iafallo and Rasmus Kupari in return. Blake Wheeler got bought out because all the players hated him.
Why They’re Going To Suck: It’s more than obvious that the Jets clearly don’t give a shit about winning, they peaked in 2018 and have been sitting on their asses ever since while letting a toxic situation fester even more. The moment Connor Hellebuyck gets traded or inevitably leaves is when they will go to shit because everything is falling apart. They’re relatively capable when it comes to drafting players, but they can’t seem to develop as of late and no one really wants to come or stay. Kevin Cheveldayoff’s probably keeping his job not because he deserves it, but because he’s ownership’s stooge and they won’t bring in someone new.
Why They Won’t Suck: The longer Connor Hellebuyck sticks around, the less of a chance the Jets suck. And with teams not really wanting to pay for a goalie on the wrong side of 30 it’s extremely plausible that he decides to stick around with Winnipeg because they’ll pay him the money that a team like the Devils won’t. Perhaps having to choose between potentially winning a cup and getting a payday might force Hellebuyck to choose the big money that Winnipeg will give him. Getting rid of Dubois and Wheeler feels like a small win because it means more minutes for analytics darling Nikolaj Ehler, Cole Perfetti and Villardi. Plus depth has always been an issue and Iafallo and Kupari look like solutions to their middle/bottom 6 issues.
What’s Probably Going To Happen: Basically it all boils down to what happens with Hellebuyck because without him the Jets fold faster than a house of cards, but with him they’re competitive enough to be in the playoff fight for all 82 games. Given that the market for goalies is non-existent Hellebuyck might find himself sticking around with the Jets.
Prediction: 4th in the Central, First Wild Card
Minnesota
What Happened Last Season: The Wild’s good vibes from the past few seasons seemingly evaporated and while they finished with 100 points they finished the season miserably and lost to a Dallas team they could’ve easily beaten.
What Happened This Offseason: They re-signed Filip Gustavsson, let Matt Dumba walk and traded for Pat Maroon. They decided to chuck a reasonable extension at Mats Zuccarello and a questionable one at Marcus Foligno.
Why They’re Going To Suck: The book is out on Dean Evason- he’s not a particularly creative coach and when things have gotten tough he’s undercut the team’s offense and doubled down on playing more conservatively. The team’s center depth past Joel Eriksson Ek is miserable, if he got hurt the Wild’s center depth would be lottery team caliber. They have a potential solution in Marco Rossi but Evason’s preference towards low event defensive forwards like Freddie Gaudreau and Ryan Hartman means he’s never going to get a meaningful opportunity. Doubling down on defense never works and if you’re doing that it’s a pretty obvious sign your team is going nowhere.
Why They Won’t Suck: They’re still one of the best defensive teams in the league and Filip Gustavsson is a brick wall. Brock Faber might not finish near the top the Calder Trophy voting but he looks like he should be a favourite to snag one of the All-Rookie defense slots alongside Luke Hughes. They’ve still got some high end wingers, especially if Mats Zuccarello can keep up his high level of play.
What’s Probably Going To Happen: The Wild are good enough to make the playoffs and should make it. The problem is that Evason’s hard-headed approach and refusal to change it is what’s going to break the Wild’s neck. His seat should be flaming right now and Bill Guerin’s seat should be starting to get warmer.
Prediction: 3rd in the Central
Dallas
What Happened Last Season: The Stars had the typical first year Pete DeBoer bump, going from being a bubble team the past two seasons under Rick Bowness to a legitimately good team that were a few victories away from their second cup finals birth in 4 seasons. Jim Nill finally won GM of the Year after a decade of winning the Offseason GM Of the Year award.
What Happened This Offseason: Evgenii Dadonov and for some reason Joel Hanley were re-signed, while they brought in Matt Duchene and Craig Smith to improve their depth. They also sent Colin Miller to the Devils.
Why They’re Going To Suck: The two biggest issues with the Stars last season were Ryan Suter’s heavy usage and Alain Nasreddine’s general incompetence. Both of those guys are still around and offering no positives. Pete DeBoer might have taken the team far with those two guys, but his shtick always wears thin over time even if his teams punch above their weight class. Having two extremely unlikeable guys in Suter and Nasreddine who will face zero accountability for their failures should probably expedite that issue.
Why They Won’t Suck: Jake Oettinger’s decline really didn’t hit until the playoffs when teams could actually take advantage of Nasreddine’s conservative puck watching schemes. Plus there’s enough firepower to outscore any potential defensive issues for the time being.
What’s Probably Going To Happen: The Stars are the bizzaro world version of the Wild- except instead of a mismanaged forward group and tough defense they’ve got a skilled forward group and a horribly mismanaged defensive group. Of course good goaltending covers bad defensive issues more effectively than it does shitty offense.
Prediction: 2nd in the Central
Colorado
What Happened Last Season: The Avs lost too much last offseason and while they were able to replace Darcy Kuemper’s presence in net with Alexandar Georgiev the losses of Nazem Kadri and Andre Burakovsky proved too much. In spite of their injuries they managed to win the Central only to get beaten by the Kraken.
What Happened This Offseason: Alex Newhook was shipped off to Montreal for picks, one of which was flipped for Ross Colton. The Avs weren’t able to keep JT Compher but they were able to get Ryan Johansen for free from Nashville. Jonathan Drouin and Tomas Tatar were brought in on a 1 year deals while Jack Johnson and Andrew Cogliano came back. Miles Wood somehow got a 6 year deal.
Why They’re Going To Suck: Their depth issues from last season are still present and possibly worse. Colton, Johansen and Drouin are at worst lateral moves from Compfer, Rodriguez and Newhook. But adding Wood seems like an enormous downgrade, especially considering he played his way out of the Devils lineup in the playoffs with ill advised penalties. Depth was what killed them against the Kraken and if they’re winning the division again they better hope they finish best in the West since they just need to avoid teams that can take advantage of their shitty depth. There will probably be some pressure to get the job done this season since Devon Toews’ contract is expiring and they’re probably going to have to shed more depth in order to extend him. Makar’s concussion problems could be an issue going forward given how much of a difference maker he is. Miles Wood will probably cost them multiple games with his penchant for terrible penalties.
Why They Won’t Suck: Having two top 10 players, another two top 20-30 players and arguably the best coach in the league probably means they’re still contenders. Plus they managed to win the division last season in spite of Cale Makar’s injuries. Tatar is probably a positive even if he disappears in the playoffs. Georgiev had an excellent season last year and gives the Avs a real nice safety net and a backup plan if they have to weather injuries again.
What’s Probably Going To Happen: The Avs path to the cup feels like it should be a lot clearer but it really isn’t. Re-shuffling their supporting cast could make them if everyone plays up to their level or it could break them if they don’t.
Prediction: 1st in the Central