NHL Season Preview: Atlantic Division
The Atlantic: Mostly Sucking Ass But Some Good Teams
If you didn’t check them out here are my Pacific Division and Central Division previews. On to the Atlantic Division!
Montreal
What Happened Last Season: The Habs sucked but they also didn’t suck hard enough, mostly because teams trying to not suck like Anaheim and Columbus faceplanted.
What Happened This Offseason: The Habs passed on Matvei Michkov. They also traded a pair of picks for Alex Newhook hoping that they could fix him. They also got some picks for Joel Edmundson, which is nice. Mike Hoffman got sent to San Jose as part of the Erik Karlsson trade, which also netted them draft picks as well Tanner Pearson and Gustav Lindstrom through other trades.
Why They’re Going To Suck: They probably won’t be as bad as they were last year but at the same time a lot of their hopes are going to be pinned on player development- which would be fine if their veterans weren’t mostly ass or in the case of Brendan Gallagher, extremely hobbled. Their forward group is okay looking on paper but their biggest standouts (Suzuki and Caufield) aren’t great defensive players and they don’t have anyone who can take tough matchups. They’ve got a pretty weak group at center and even if Kirby Dach can play center he doesn’t exactly have a whole lot of capable wingers. There seems to be a path forward but it probably will be a very painful one.
Why They Won’t Suck: I don’t hate their defense, Sam Montembeault seems kinda underrated and their team being all dart throws means there’s bound to be a Mark Donk or two in that group (Raphael Harvey-Pinard screams Mark Donk). Of course my definition of “won’t suck” here is probably finishing higher than 14th in the East and/or seeing significant improvements at 5v5. Juraj Slafkovsky could be a wild card here but what he showed last year was not particularly encouraging. His sophomore season needs to look more like Jack Hughes’ with positives in spite of okayish production and less like Alexis LaFreniere’s where there were neither of those.
What’s Probably Going To Happen: There’s more growing pains as Kent Hughes slowly but surely unfucks this team. And given how the Eastern conference is starting to get more competitive it’s probably safe to say that the Habs aren’t doing a whole lot next year.
Prediction: 8th in the Atlantic
Detroit
What Happened Last Season: Spending a ton of money on mid tier free agents didn’t exactly pay off and they mostly improved due to teams sucking more than them. They also convinced the Canucks to give up a lot for Filip Hronek having a good 40 games last season.
What Happened This Offseason: Steve Yzerman made a big move acquiring Alex DeBrincat and some solid cheap bets (Shayne Gostisbehre, Daniel Sprong, Klim Kostin, Alex Lyon). Ultimately the good moves were also mixed in with bad moves, overpaying for JT Compher’s career season as well as giving Justin Holl a lot of money to be ass. Filip Zadina got his contract terminated so some mediocre old guy could get more ice time. Gustav Lindstrom was traded for the husk of Jeff Petry. James Reimer also got a contract for some reason.
Why They’re Going To Suck: The main issue with the Yzerplan is that it seems to be trending towards the shortcut “rebuilds” that teams like the Kings and Rangers have, where their young talent is secondary to the veteran core. Getting DeBrincat is nice, but a lot of the players they’ve acquired aren’t making them better and are just getting in the way of any forward progress. Instead of actually going somewhere, Detroit is building a team that’s not bad enough to be a lottery team but also one where younger players have no opportunity to play because they stuck behind pricey, middling veterans. It rarely ever works- usually those teams will peak as a playoff team that doesn’t go deep only to see things go to shit earlier than usual. It’s a risky strategy and the short term gains might not be worth the inevitability of them potentially peaking a bit too early.
Why They Won’t Suck: The East is pretty wide open and they poached a good player off a team they’re competing against. Lucas Raymond seems primed for a pretty big bounceback and a potential breakout. They’re pretty clear of the bottom feeding triumvirate of Philly, Columbus and Montreal and they have a capable goalie in Ville Husso. Adding a legitimate goalscorer in DeBrincat should help them.
What’s Probably Going To Happen: The dead end veterans probably end up being closer to dead weight than actual contributors and Yzerman is going to have to be a seller at the deadline- which is for the best since he should be able to recoup some assets to make a play for better players next offseason.
Prediction: 7th in the Atlantic
Ottawa
What Happened Last Season: Hot Dorion Summer had them making big, sexy moves which ultimately accomplished nothing. And instead of attempting to address the team’s problems (questionable depth, woefully inept coaching) he doubled down and made another big sexy move which didn’t exactly solve anything.
What Happened This Offseason: Alex DeBrincat ended up getting traded to Detroit because they couldn’t afford to keep him, which ended up netting them Dominik Kubalik and some picks. The cap savings ended up going towards Joonas Korpisalo, who’d have been a reasonable addition on a shorter term deal. They got Vladimir Tarasenko to take a 1 year deal as a replacement for DeBrincat. Steve Staios was named team president and they brought in Sean Tierney to help with their analytics team.
Why They’re Going To Suck: The Senators didn’t address their biggest weaknesses, which was their lack of depth and more significantly, their mediocre coaching. Smith seems like a nice guy but he’s not a great coach and is most likely going to be a fall guy for Dorion’s failures. Of course if they can him mid-season they’re most likely stuck with a John Hynes to Alain Nasreddine situation because Jack Capuano is an assistant on that coaching staff (speaking of Hynes, guess who is currently looking for a job?). The bigger problem is that for all his flaws, Smith can only do so much with Dorion’s poor player acquisition. His inability to find undervalued talent is non-existent and more often than not they’re paying top dollar for name brand players who haven’t been good for years like Travis Hamonic.
Why They Won’t Suck: They’ve got the guns to win sloppy, high scoring games like the Sabres did last year. The loss of DeBrincat should be mitigated by the return of Josh Norris, who can slide into DeBrincat’s spot on the power play and more importantly provide an upgrade at center over Derick Brassard’s husk. Maybe Smith or whoever replaces Smith finds a way to make Jakob Chychrun work out on their blueline. I’m not a huge fan of the term on Korpisalo’s contract but it’s tough to argue that he can’t be any worse than the guys they had in net last season. The Tierney hire should help them find undervalued talent, although the hire feels like it should’ve happened way earlier than in the middle of summer.
What’s Probably Going To Happen: New owner Michael Andlauer seems to be making his presence felt with bringing in Steve Staios to help shape their team. They’re investing in analytics and have a high quality guy in Tierney leading that ship. The problem is that they’ve got some unfucking to do and Dorion and Smith aren’t part of the solution so the path might be a bit rockier to navigate right now.
Prediction: 6th in the Atlantic
Buffalo
What Happened Last Season: A lot of things clicked for the Sabres and they took a big step forward that none of us really expected them to take. There’s still some rough edges that need to be sanded off but considering what they did with their best goalie being 42 year old Craig Anderson there is finally something to look forward to.
What Happened This Offseason: The Sabres got some draft day luck with Zach Benson falling to them at 13 and spent most of their offseason bolstering their depth with guys like Connor Clifton and Erik Johnson while captain Kyle Okposo chose to re-sign for another season. Ilya Lybushkin got traded to Anaheim.
Why They’re Going To Suck: I like Devon Levi a lot but if you’re expecting him to be a #1 goalie right out of the gate that could be a problem because their contingency plans include two goalies who had save percentages comfortably below .900. Not spending on a goalie in free agency is fine but with their war chest they at least had the option of getting a cromulent goalie on the trade market or even pushing some chips in by going after Juuse Saros. Having some sort of insurance for Levi would’ve probably been enough to at least put them in a position where making the playoffs is nearly a certainty. Tage Thompson following a breakout season with a bigger breakout season was awesome but there is a possibility that he follows up said season with just a regular good season (probably closer to 40/40 than 50/50).
Why They Won’t Suck: Outside of their goaltending everything else looks pretty good. Maybe improving their top 4 could be something they could look into but that feels more like a suggestion than a necessity. I’m pretty bullish on this group and I would’ve loved to have seen them make it last year- and they almost did with non-existent goaltending. Plus with everyone getting worse the Sabres not actively getting worse might be good enough even if they didn’t make significant improvements this offseason. And with their massive war chest they still have time to make that big addition.
What’s Probably Going To Happen: Devon Levi doesn’t absolutely dominate, but he’s good enough to provide capable enough goaltending to be a difference maker. But what I’m banking on here is the Sabres using their massive war chest to make a big play to acquire another major difference maker for them, which plays a big part in breaking their league leading playoff drought.
Prediction: 4th in the Atlantic, Second Wild Card
Florida
What Happened Last Season: The Panthers barely squeaked into the playoffs and pulled off a cinderella run to the finals before losing to Vegas.
What Happened This Offseason: Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour both had surgery and will miss a chunk of the season, so they signed a bunch of defensemen, which included Dmitry Kulikov, Mike Reilly and the spectre of Oliver Ekman-Larsson. They got rid of Anthony Duclair and used the cap space to sign Evan Rodrigues, which is for the most part a pretty smart move even if they sold low on Duclair.
Why They’re Going To Suck: The injuries to Montour and Ekblad seem really significant since their defense without those two and Radko Gudas is a house of cards ready to fall. Surviving until Montour and Ekblad are back and up to speed is going to be really hard and when the best dart throw they could make is Mike Reilly that seems like an issue. If they get into too deep a hole is Paul Maurice the guy you trust them with? Unless Sergei Bobrovsky can suddenly regain his Vezina form this team isn’t doing a whole lot. The Panthers seem good at finding outside the box solutions but at the same time this might be a bit too much to expect them to overcome
Why They Won’t Suck: If Maurice’s head isn’t stuck up his ass he might come to the realization that the Panthers can simply outscore their problems. If they play every game trying to win 6-4 or 7-6 they can still win against teams that are worse than them and occasionally flummox the teams that are better than them. It’s a risky proposition especially without Montour, but it feels like the way to go here even if Maurice isn’t exactly an offense first guy. Spencer Knight returning could help since he could potentially take over the starting role from Bobrovsky proving Maurice an important crutch in his vaunted “get carried by the goalie” system.
What’s Probably Going To Happen: It feels like a repeat of last season, but a lot more dicey given that their defense is going to be a tire fire for a few months. They’re probably not imploding the same way the Habs did two years ago after a cinderella finals run, but with most of the teams in the east getting better and the Panthers at best maintaining status quo the Sword of Damocles might lop their heads off before they can sneak into the playoffs.
Prediction: 5th in the Atlantic
Tampa Bay
What Happened Last Season: Tampa became unserious and lost to the Leafs in the first round.
What Happened This Offseason: They had to trade Ross Colton and Pat Maroon as cap casualties and ended up replacing them with Conor Sheary, Luke Glendenning and Tyler Motte, who was signed because Tampa decided to 86 Josh Archibald’s contract. Jonas Johansson somehow got a job as Vasilevskiy’s backup.
Why They’re Going To Suck: The back to back cups came because they had the depth to beat everyone everywhere. They don’t have that sort of depth and they’ve surrendered a lot of that for very little as well as giving up a lot of futures to replace the guys they’ve lost. Getting beat by Toronto feels like it should be a wake up call but all of Brisebois’ moves have been shuffling deck chairs on the titanic. The Tanner Jeannot trade looks like an extremely avoidable mistake that cost them way too much for a guy who brings way too little. Johansson is dog water and with Vasilevskiy’s injury he will be in way over his head for the first few months.
Why They Won’t Suck: They’ve still got the top end talent and that’s what really matters. The depth was a difference maker but they also don’t get those cups without having multiple guys at the top of the lineup who you could rightfully call a Conn Smythe winner. Perhaps with some of the departures Tanner Jeannot might find himself in a spot to succeed like Hagel did last season after Ondrej Palat’s departure. Depth issues might sink them in the playoffs but having Andrei Vasilevskiy in net is a huge advantage that contenders like the Devils, Hurricanes and Oilers currently do not have.
What’s Probably Going To Happen: It’s real hard to see Tampa falling out of the playoff picture unless there’s a significant injury. Perhaps not having a capable backup might be an issue because I don’t think I’d trust Johansson even against the 2018-19 New Jersey Devils. There’s a pretty clear divide between the top half of the division and the bottom and Tampa’s still on the right side of that, for now at least.
Prediction: 3rd in the Atlantic
Toronto
What Happened Last Season: The Leafs won a playoff round then promptly got their asses kicked by the Panthers.
What Happened This Offseason: Kyle Dubas rage quit and now Brad Treliving is GM. Treliving chose not to bring back the Leafs big deadline acquisitions (Ryan O’Reilly, Noel Accari, Luke Schenn) and instead brought in Max Domi, Tyler Bertuzzi and Ryan Reaves. They finally got rid of Justin Holl but doing so lead to them bringing in John Klingberg. Michael Bunting is surprisingly gone after an embarassing playoff performance and Alex Kerfoot got to walk as well. Martin Jones got a contract for some reason.
Why They’re Going To Suck: They didn’t really address any of their problems beyond secondary scoring. An Ilya Samsonov-Joe Woll tandem isn’t super confidence inducing even if it could theoretically get the job done. But the real problem in net is that the fallback plan is Martin Jones, who is ass. John Klingberg and Ryan Reaves are specialists who are utterly worthless beyond whatever they’re supposed to bring to the table. Keeping Keefe seems questionable, especially when Andrew Brunette was available. The regular season isn’t going to be an issue but the playoffs will and Keefe’s refusal to adjust is going to be a huge problem in that regard.
Why They Won’t Suck: The issue I always had with Kyle Dubas is that as smart as he was, he seemed like he was trying to get too smart. Tyler Bertuzzi seems like a good add even if they can’t keep him. Max Domi is the stylistic opposite of Alex Kerfoot and the Leafs could use a guy like Domi more than they could Kerfoot. It’s kinda hard to say the Leafs got worse- and even if they did they’re not in the same boat as other atlantic teams who either didn’t actively improve or in the case of Boston had a big strength turned into a terminal weakness.
What’s Probably Going To Happen: Of all the Atlantic division teams the Leafs seem like they’re the ones least likely to get kneecapped by their shortcomings. Their biggest problems are always going to be playoff related so I don’t think the regular season is going to be the problem here.
Prediction: 1st in the Atlantic
Boston
What Happened Last Season: The Bruins were a historically dominant team that proceeded to choke against a middling Panthers team that barely snuck into the playoffs.
What Happened This Offseason: The Bruins were unable to keep all their rentals from the deadline and instead chose to allocate their cap space towards a laundry list of bargain bin players- Kevin Shattenkirk, James Van Riemsdyk, Milan Lucic, Morgan Geekie and Jesper Boqvist. Taylor Hall ended up being a cap casualty as he was sent to Chicago in exchange for fringe NHLer Ian Mitchell. Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci retired leaving an enormous hole in their lineup.
Why They’re Going To Suck: The Bruins may straight up have the worst group of centers in the league. Not only is their best center (Pavel Zacha) the worst 1C in the league, he might be one of the worst 2nd line centers in the league. Given their lack of resources with assets and cap space getting a capable center is very likely impossible. Linus Ullmark’s injuries seem like a problem and if Jeremy Swayman can’t get the job done they could be in deep trouble.
Why They Won’t Suck: If you ignore the centers they’re still very good elsewhere- their defense is still very good, they have a great group of wingers and assuming that Ullmark is healthy they have no real weak link in net.
What’s Probably Going To Happen: The Bruins are one of the weirdest teams assembled and are extremely antithetical to team building in the present NHL. But it might work out largely because of how flawed everyone else is in the Atlantic. Having two good goalies does help and that’s probably the biggest factor as to why I’m predicting them to finish where they will finish.
Prediction: 2nd in the Atlantic